The development of the international market for goods and services increasingly influences the economy of each country. There are more than 200 independent states in the world. The increasing interdependence between them has led to the fact that their economic well-being is no longer determined by the size of the territory and the capacity of the domestic market. Even the smallest of them can successfully supply their goods to the international market. According to the definition of J. Sachs, “the economic success of any country in the world is based on foreign trade. No country has yet managed to create a healthy economy by isolating itself from the global economic system.”
Analysis current state international trade makes it possible to highlight the following main trends in its development in the context of globalization.
· Strengthening the role of international economic organizations in regulating international trade in goods and services. The development of trade rules on the international market is carried out, first of all, within the framework of the World trade organization(WTO), which as of July 1, 2009 included 153 states. An important role in regulating international trade is played by such financial organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
· Under the influence of the globalization process and its main subjects - TNCs - further changes in the geographical directions of goods flows. The share of developing countries in world trade has increased significantly, especially at the expense of China and the newly industrialized countries. Some decrease in the share of developed countries in world trade, a transfer transnational corporations modern production and part of the sub-supplies to developing countries does not mean the loss of the leading position of economically strong countries. This is evidenced by their leading role in the production and exchange of high technology products and further development mutual trade, especially within the framework of intra-industry production specialization and cooperation.
However, attention is drawn to the fact that the competitiveness of products from developing countries is growing. One of the most remarkable changes in the direction of world trade in the second half of the 20th century is that the share of manufacturers producing export products in developing countries overall rose from about 25 percent to over 75 percent by the late 1990s.
· The increasing role of regional integration associations in regulating international trade . Over the past 15 years, the world has witnessed the truly explosive nature of the process of concluding regional integration agreements. As of October 2003, 285 RTAs (including TPAs) have been notified to the WTO, of which 189 have entered into force. In addition, a further 60 agreements are believed to have entered into force but have not yet been notified. The bulk of them are preferential trade agreements, and only 14 of them are designated as customs unions or common markets. A significant number of RTAs have been created in Europe, and recently the most active proliferation of such agreements is occurring in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
More than half of world trade now takes place within existing or emerging trading blocs, and almost every country in the world is a member of one or more regional integration agreements. The most integrated market in the world is the European Union: in 2007, according to the World Trade Organization, 68% of trade transactions took place within its borders. Trade between NAFTA countries accounted for slightly more than half (51%) of North American Free Trade Agreement exports. Other trading blocs such as MERCOSUR, Andean Community or ASEAN show less obvious integration. In 2007, MERCOSUR countries carried out about 14% of foreign trade transactions within the agreement, Andean Community – 8%, ASEAN – 25%. Regional integration agreements provide for discrimination against countries that are not members of these agreements, while at the same time promoting more sustainable development of the national economies of member countries.
· TNCs are the driving force behind the expansion of global flows of goods, services and investments , of which today there are more than 71 thousand.
Currently, TNCs control up to half of the world's industrial production, 65% foreign trade, as well as approximately 4/5 of patents and licenses for new equipment, technologies and know-how. TNCs control 90% of the world market for wheat, coffee, corn, timber, tobacco, jute and iron ore, 85% of the market for copper and bauxite, 80% for tea and tin, 77% for bananas, natural rubber and crude oil. Half of US exports are carried out by American and foreign multinationals. In the UK their share reaches 80, and in Singapore 90%. The core of the world economic system consists of about 500 TNCs, which have practically unlimited economic power (Table 7).
Course work
on the topic of:
"Main trends in the development of world trade."
Moscow
2010
Page
Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Main directions of development of world trade. clause 1.1 general characteristics 5
modern international
trade. 8
clause 1.2 Liberalization and protectionism.
clause 1.3 Regionalism and regional structure in modern 10
system. 16
clause 1.4 Industries of international trade. Chapter 2. Analysis of the main indicators of foreign trade. 19
clause 2.1 Commodity structure of exports. 26 clause 2.2 Commodity structure of imports.
Chapter 3. Changing positions of countries in the world market and their world economic ties with Russia. 30 clause 3.1 Russian-Asian economic relations. 31
clause 3.2 Russian-American trade relations.
Conclusion 39
Bibliography 41
Introduction.
One of the most remarkable features in the development of international economic relations of the 20th century is the strengthening in them of the role and importance since the beginning of the 60s of former colonies and dependent territories - the current developing states, or as they are often called "liberated states", countries of the "third world" , "countries of the South", countries of the "Periphery".
For this group of countries, the emergence of the economy has its own specifics, resulting from the peculiarities of the development of their culture and economy. Considering the constant growth in the number of developing countries and their huge share in the world population, it is obvious that they are of great, and in a number of parameters, key importance for all of humanity.
Foreign economic relations play an important role in determining the position of developing countries in the world economy. Their development profiles not only the relationships with other subsystems, but also the degree of influence of the latter on the domestic market.
Participation in global trade is one of the necessary conditions for obtaining financial and technological resources to ensure economic growth. Foreign trade of developing countries is characterized by high growth rates and significant changes in the commodity structure, reflecting shifts in the economy. A qualitatively new feature of their exports was the growing share of finished industrial products. Certain shifts have also emerged in the geographical direction of foreign trade. One of the indicators of this was the expansion of trade relations between the developing countries themselves according to the South-South pattern. Since the late 80s. Developing countries are outpacing developed countries in terms of foreign trade growth.
This topic is quite relevant today. Its relevance lies in the fact that today the trade turnover of developing countries is increasing every year. The question arises whether developing countries, given the current dynamics of international trade, will be able to occupy a dominant position in the world market, or whether industrialized countries will take all possible measures to prevent the penetration of third world countries into leading world markets.
In this course work My main goal is to consider the current state of trade in developing countries and try to determine the prospects for their further development. And also, during the analysis, still answer the question: “What measures are developing countries taking to change their position in the world market?” There are several points of view in modern literature. That is why this topic is very interesting to me and in the course of its research, I would like to form my own opinion that serves as an answer to this question.
For a more complete disclosure of this topic, I have identified the main tasks:
Studying the direction of development of world trade;
Analysis of the most important trade indicators;
Consideration of world economic relations between developing countries and Russia;
Chapter 1. Main directions of development of world trade.
1.1 General characteristics of modern international trade.
The need for foreign trade is caused by the uneven development of various industries in different countries. The products of the most dynamically developing industries, which cannot be sold on the domestic market, are exported abroad.
Structural changes occurring in the economies of states under the influence of the scientific and technological revolution (STR), specialization and cooperation of industrial production strengthen the interaction of national economies, which contributes to the intensification of international trade.
External, or international, trade is the exchange of goods and services between different countries, associated with the general internationalization of economic life and the intensification of the international division of labor in the conditions of scientific and technological revolution.
Since the second half of the twentieth century, when international exchange acquired the so-called. "explosive character" world trade is developing at a high rate. The evolution of foreign trade in the second half of the 20th century. was characterized by overcoming the main consequences of the disorganization of world trade, the political decolonization of most of the liberated countries, shifts in the world market in connection with the scientific and technological revolution, fuel and raw materials, monetary, financial and economic crises.
At the present stage of development of the world economy, there is a tendency towards limitless expansion of production volumes, while the capacity of the domestic market is limited by the solvency of the population. Therefore, production inevitably outgrows the boundaries of domestic demand and entrepreneurs in each country wage a stubborn struggle for foreign markets. Due to the ever-increasing consumption of raw materials, all the resources available in the world are needed by almost every country in the world.
According to research by the World Trade Organization (WTO), for every 10% increase in world production, there is a 16% increase in world trade, thereby creating more favorable conditions for its development. When disruptions occur in trade, the development of production slows down. 1
The pace of global trade has increased significantly over the past two decades. The increase in trade has affected many developing countries, but most have experienced only modest growth. In particular, the least developed countries' share of international trade fell from 1.7% in 1970 to 0.6% in 2007.
Differences in commercial development between states are largely due to the type of trade they engage in. High value-added goods and services, especially when produced using high technology and highly skilled personnel, can significantly increase trade profits, as some East Asian states have demonstrated. Poverty levels in these countries fell by 40% by the beginning of the 21st century, and per capita GDP tripled over the past two decades.
Particular attention should be paid to the consequences of the development of international trade for the economies of countries with a changing supply of production factors. Increasing the export of raw materials for developing countries may not always lead to a favorable result. Expanding the export of raw materials for countries whose economic growth is mainly associated with this resource can lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade and a decrease in the welfare of the nation. The rapid increase in exports of raw materials leads to such a drop in world prices for this product that it covers up the positive effect of economic growth.
The organization of international trade, its structure and dynamics largely characterize the national economy, its problems and development prospects. The dynamics of global trade turnover are influenced by many factors. This is the expansion of production, the deepening of the international division of labor, the phase of the world economic cycle and other components that influence aggregate demand developed countries. These countries are the main exporters and importers of goods and services, with the majority of their trade turnover coming from mutual trade. The dynamics of global trade turnover are also influenced by lending, foreign trade liberalization, integration, exchange rates and other factors.
The interest of individual countries in expanding their international relations is explained by the need to sell products on international markets, the need to obtain certain goods from outside and, finally, the desire to extract higher profits due to the use of cheap labor and raw materials from developing countries.
Modern world trade has the following features:
an unprecedented scale of international commodity exchange under the influence of scientific and technological revolution and the deepening of its internationalization. The growth in the volume of international trade is caused by such factors as a radical change in the structure of the energy balance of developed industrial countries, an increase in the consumption of petroleum products, an increased demand for machinery in connection with the industrialization of agriculture, as well as an increase in the pace of industrial, transport and energy construction in developing countries. This was also facilitated by the expansion of foreign trade exchanges between industrialized countries, which is largely due to the creation of regional trade and economic blocs as a result of the integration process;
progressive changes in geographical distribution international trade, which is manifested in an increase in the share of developing countries in international trade;
dynamic development of international trade;
changes in the trade structure of exports under the influence of scientific and technological revolution, which accelerated the objective process of the international division of labor and caused an increase in the exchange of knowledge-intensive products, finished products and services. In general, changes in the structure of commodity exports are characterized by the fact that in recent years the share of finished goods has been steadily increasing, the share of which amounts to more than 2/3 of the value of world trade turnover;
the emergence of new industries and production, which caused a growing dependence of a number of countries on the import of certain types of raw materials, especially non-ferrous metals, oil, and gas;
the establishment, under the influence of scientific and technological revolution, of deep and sustainable technological connections between enterprises of different countries in the production of products from the mechanical engineering, chemical, electrical and electronic industries.
Modern international trade is gradually losing its initially inherent features of simple sale of a certain surplus of products on the foreign market and is increasingly being reduced to pre-agreed deliveries of goods between cooperating enterprises in different countries.
Current trends in the development of world trade:
The dynamics of international trade are characterized by high rates of development
With the overall growth of foreign trade, its dynamics in individual countries and regions are different.
Foreign trade is growing at a faster rate than the overall rate of domestic economic development of countries
Export and import quotas of many countries have increased
The geographical configuration of world trade in the post-war period is characterized asymmetrically. The share of developed countries in world exports is 70-75%, developing countries - 20%, former socialist countries - 10%.
Leading role in international trade - USA, EU, Japan.
48.1% of trade turnover - G7
Growth trends vary across all regions of the developing world:
The share of NIS in Southeast Asia in global exports is growing: in terms of total foreign trade volume, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia
China's share is increasing: the value increased from $24 billion to $325 billion. $
Tends to reduce the role of African countries
The share of developing countries in Latin America is declining, with the exception of Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Chile.
The share of Russia in the 20th century. - 1% of world exports and 0.8% of world imports
The main flow of international trade comes from mutual trade between developed countries (? 67%)
27% - trade between developed and developing countries
6% for developed and developing countries on the one hand and countries with transition economies on the other.
The commodity structure of world trade is changing:
The flow of goods involved in international trade is diversifying
The share of finished products in international trade is increasing
International trade in chemical products has increased
The share of international trade in raw materials and fuels is declining
In world trade, the share of all food products is decreasing
There is an emerging trend of growth in textiles and clothing in global exports.
Foreign trade is the main form of world economic relations. In terms of dynamics and value indicators, it is ahead of the growth of world production, the movement of capital and other types of foreign economic relations, which is one of the the most important characteristics modern world economy. The growth rate of international export-import transactions exceeds the growth rate of the main segments of world production, incl. industrial goods, mineral raw materials and agricultural products.
The increasing importance of trade in the world economy, as well as its intensive development, is due to the objective process of globalization and the increasing interdependence of most countries of the world. The intensification of world trade was facilitated by significant progress in the development of the international division of labor.
In the field of trade exchanges, international regimes and multilateral agreements were developed within the framework of the WTO - international organization, which operated on the basis of a multilateral treaty establishing the principles and rules of world trade. The activities of the WTO are aimed at liberalizing export-import transactions and, in particular, at reducing and eliminating tariff and non-tariff barriers.
A further increase in international trade was facilitated by significant liberalization of the foreign trade policies of developing countries, the expansion of trade between them and, in addition, the preservation of favorable conditions in the markets for industrial products in many developing and newly industrialized countries. The revolution in the field was also significant information technologies and telecommunications.
Export value of office and telecommunications equipment since the early 1990s. almost doubled and reached almost 15% of the total value of world trade in 1998.
An important factor growth in world trade is a significant increase in the re-export of manufactured goods manufactured in developing countries using components and materials imported under trade agreement systems.
In recent years, there have been significant changes in the structure of world trade. In particular, the share of communications and information technology services has increased significantly, while at the same time the share of trade in commodities and agricultural products has decreased.
Certain changes are also taking place in the geographical distribution of world trade. Trade in developing countries is gradually growing, but the volume of trade flows from newly industrialized countries is increasing at a particularly rapid pace.
Among countries with economies in transition, China's foreign trade is developing more dynamically, which has allowed the country to enter the top ten largest trading powers in the world.
At the same time, a significant part of world trade turnover - about a third of world export-import transactions - is still accounted for by leading industrialized countries (USA, Germany and Japan). The largest trading countries in the world include France, Great Britain, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, and Belgium.
34. Main characteristics of Russia’s foreign trade activities.
FOREIGN TRADE ACTIVITY is entrepreneurial activity in the field of international exchange of goods, works, services, information, results of intellectual activity, including exclusive rights to them (intellectual property).
In Russia, in order to stimulate the growth of the national economy, the Government of the Russian Federation and the executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, in accordance with the legislation, promote the development of foreign trade activities, including through the implementation of Federal and regional programs development of foreign trade activities. Federal program development of foreign trade activities is developed annually by the Government of the Russian Federation. The specified program contains: 1) forecast trade balance How component balance of payments of the Russian Federation; 2) assessment of the current state and problems of trade and economic relations of the Russian Federation with foreign countries; 3) a plan for external borrowings of the Russian Federation with a detailed description of the intended use of foreign loans; 4) a plan for export loans provided using funds from the Federal budget or under guarantees of the Government of the Russian Federation; 5) plan for servicing the external debt of the Russian Federation; 6) plan for revenues from servicing the debts of foreign states to the Russian Federation; 7) a list of measures of state foreign trade regulation, customs tariff duty rates and the limits of their possible change, quantitative restrictions on exports and imports, measures to protect the domestic market; 8) a list of measures to stimulate industrial exports for the corresponding year; 9) a register of cases of discrimination and violations of bilateral and multilateral obligations committed against Russian persons in the markets of individual states, and a list of measures taken and planned to protect the legitimate trade and economic interests of the Russian Federation.
Export of energy resources will remain one of the main directions of Russia’s foreign trade activities until 2020.
The changes taking place in the service sector are caused by the processes of internationalization and globalization in international production and exchange. The service sector is developing in integration with material production: in services, the level and quality of material support and equipment is increasing, and in production, costs for services are increasingly increasing in the value of total production costs. This especially applies to high-tech industrial sectors. The service sector is greatly influenced by the large-scale structural and technological restructuring of material production, the transition to a post-industrial model, where knowledge-intensive types of services come to the fore.
In terms of growth rates, business and professional services, represented by management, marketing, advertising, auditing and accounting services, etc., are steadily leading. The functions of these services include the development and implementation of organizational and management models, new technologies, methods for increasing the efficiency of resource use, etc.
The volumes of information and computer services are growing fastest, engineering and consulting services. They provide firms with information for making decisions on production, financial, and management aspects of doing business.
The share of international tourism in the export of services is steadily increasing, which is due to growing incomes of the population. The practice of receiving education abroad is becoming increasingly popular. medical care. A number of other service industries are developing at a more moderate pace, corresponding to the average indicators for the service sector and the economy as a whole.
The service sector is developing in several directions:
Large financial companies provide banking, insurance, trading services for orientation on foreign exchange and stock markets. This allows the client to enter into an agreement with a single supplier.
In the 90s XX century The main direction of international trade in services has become e-commerce. It is taken into account under the article “Distribution services” and, to a certain extent, erases the time and spatial boundaries between the parties to the transaction. E-commerce, firstly, allows you to purchase services (order, payment, delivery) electronically. An example would be the purchase of books or newspapers in electronic format, computer programs, audio and video recordings, the provision consulting services. Secondly, e-commerce simplifies the procedure for trading in services when it is necessary to transport a service by completing transport transaction documents electronically.
As a result, the process of identifying product quality, comparing order prices, preparing transport and payment documents is automated, which significantly speeds up the conclusion of a foreign trade transaction. The seller immediately has access to the world market, and the buyer has a wide choice from a huge number of services offered. In addition, this method of doing business makes it possible to reduce the number of intermediaries. So, when selling plane tickets, entertainment events, when providing other services, “business-to-consumer” operations are carried out without intermediaries (business to consumer), bypassing the relevant agencies and offices.
On the market electronic transactions(operations or transactions) systems of bank cards, systems for reserving tickets and hotel rooms, ordering goods and services, as well as stock exchange, banking and settlement operations are presented. The development of the Internet has transformed this previously corporate and elitist market into a mass market, a rapidly growing new industry of electronic commerce. The Internet effectively serves the market for electronic transactions, despite the still existing insufficient information security capabilities.
The market for electronic services is transforming into a market electronic global communication. It is formed on the basis of modern means of communication and human communication. These are commercial and public data networks, systems Email, commercial dialogue systems that bring together owners of personal computers, teleconferences, electronic network bulletin boards, etc. They also use cable and satellite television services to distribute business and commercial information.
The nature of the information transmitted includes business information on economic and social status of firms, companies, TNCs and others organizational structures business. It consists of numerical economic, social, demographic estimates in the form of time series, forecast models and estimates provided by public services and private companies.
Commercial information contains information about products, prices, financial condition, transactions, economic relations, company leaders.
Scientific and technical information includes documentary, bibliographic, abstract and reference information, data in the field of fundamental and applied sciences, industries and spheres of human activity.
Along with business information, it is widely distributed mass and consumer information for a wide range of services, such as purchases and sales, currency exchange, car rental, tourist tours, rentals, etc.
Among modern services, engineering, consulting and consulting services play a prominent role.
Currently, not a single state in the world can develop successfully without integration into the world economy. Moreover, there is a direct proportional relationship between the degree of integration into the world economy and the level of development of the domestic economy. As a rule, the more integrated a country is into the global economic space, the higher the level of development of its domestic economy, and vice versa.
In the modern world economy, foreign economic relations are an important exogenous (external origin) factor that has a significant impact on the dynamics and sustainability of the development of the national economy, the formation of its structure, and the efficiency of its functioning.
For many countries around the world, the dynamic development of foreign economic relations has become a catalyst for domestic economic growth. In particular, for newly industrialized countries, foreign economic relations were the main structure-forming factor in the process of forming a dynamic model of sustainable economic development in them.
Foreign economic relations play a special role in global integration processes. The current stage of development of world economic relations is characterized by dynamism, liberalization, and diversification of forms and types of foreign economic activity.
One of the important trends in the development of world economic relations is the diversification of forms of cooperation. In addition to traditional forms of foreign economic relations - foreign trade and investment cooperation - scientific and technical cooperation, industrial cooperation, monetary and financial, military-technical cooperation, tourism, etc. have been actively developing in recent years.
The main form of global economic relations remains foreign trade, which in terms of dynamics and value indicators is ahead of the movement of capital and other types of foreign economic relations. In addition, the growth rate of international export-import transactions exceeds the growth rate of world industrial production.
After 5 years of fairly moderate growth and stagnation in 1993, the volume of world trade began to grow at a fairly high rate in 1994. The growth rate of world trade in 1994 was 9.5%, which is a record figure over the past 20 years.
According to preliminary data, in 1995 the volume of world trade increased by 8%. The intensification of trade was facilitated by significant progress in the development of the international division of labor. In addition, a significant factor in the growth of international trade was the continued favorable economic conditions in many developing countries and especially in newly industrialized countries.
Stimulus rapid development world trade was driven by the revolution in information technology. The value of exports of office and telecommunications equipment increased by 25% in 1995, reaching 12% of the total value of world trade.
An important factor in the growth of world trade is the significant increase in re-exports of manufactured goods manufactured in developing countries using components and materials imported under trade preference systems.
Industrialized countries control more than 70% of world trade. The world's largest trading powers are the United States, Germany and Japan, which account for about a third of global export and import transactions. The ten largest trading countries in the world include France, Great Britain, and Italy. Canada, Hong Kong, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg. In recent years, there has been a steady upward trend in the share of developing countries in world trade, and especially the newly industrialized countries of Asia. In terms of the total volume of foreign trade ($920 billion in 1993), Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand are second only to the United States. These countries account for more than 10% of total world trade. Data on the exports and imports of some countries and their shares in world exports and imports are presented in tables 1 and 2. Among the Asian, newly industrialized countries, the top ten largest trading powers in the world include Hong Kong, which in 1993 ranked 7th on the list in exports and 8th place in imports. Hong Kong is significantly ahead of all countries in the world in terms of the value of exports and imports per capita.
Among countries with economies in transition, China's foreign trade is developing most dynamically. From 1979 to 1995, the average annual growth of export-import transactions was 16.5%, which significantly exceeded the growth rate of world trade. The value of China's foreign trade increased from $24 billion in 1979 to $281 billion in 1995, allowing the country to become one of the ten largest trading powers in the world.
Modern international trade is developing at a fairly high pace. Among the main trends in the development of international trade, the following can be identified:
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