Personal effectiveness
23.02.2023

The concept of the theory of management decision making. Decision theory performs cognitive and predictive functions

Lecture 2. Decision making problem. Basic concepts of decision theory

Basic concepts included in the training testing system:

Problem; decision maker; target; operation; result; model; control; solution; conditions; alternative; criterion; best solution;

unambiguous connections; polysemantic connections; criterion evaluation; efficiency of decisions; subjective decision-making factors; objective decision-making factors; TPR concepts; TPR principles

Basic concepts and definitions. The study of any science requires defining the terms used in it. The following basic concepts are used in this manual: .

problem, decision maker, goal, operation, result, model, control, solution, conditions, alternative, criterion, best solution Problem

. The problem is the starting point of the need to develop and make decisions. The concept of a problem is revealed through the subject’s feeling of some discomfort. Usually the subject perceives the problem as a kind of discrepancy between what he would like to have or what he would like to achieve (desired state) and what he actually has at the moment (actual state). The problem naturally requires a solution. However, not every problem can be solved with the means at an individual’s disposal. Therefore, the concept of the problem includes not only need in eliminating discomfort, but also real opportunities to solve the problem. In general resources

(sometimes they say active resources, meaning the possibility of directing them to carry out a particular action) mean everything that can be used to achieve a goal. The main resources are always people, time, finances (money) and supplies for the planned activity. decision maker . Under the face host

solutions (DM), is understood as a subject who seriously intends to eliminate the problem facing him, to allocate for its resolution and actually use the active resources available to him, to sovereignly take advantage of the positive results from solving the problem or to take upon himself the full burden of responsibility for failure, misfortune, wasted expenses. . A formalized description of the desired state, the achievement of which is identified in the minds of the decision maker with the solution to the problem. The goal is described in the form of a required result, usually vector (i.e., characterized by several components or parameters). The components of the vector of the required result are most often indicators of costs (human labor, time, money, materials, etc.) and effect (image, profit, reliability, etc.).

Operation - any purposeful activity, any set of activities carried out by decision-makers in the interests of achieving the intended goal.

Result . By result we mean a special form of presentation (description) of the most important characteristics of the outcome of the operation for the decision maker. When studying an operation, its results are presented on the most appropriate scale. If, for example, “profit” and “losses” are accepted as the outcomes of a commercial transaction, then the preference (or, conversely, non-preference) of these outcomes can be measured, for example, or in quantitative scale (in monetary terms), or in quality scale (for example, with gradations “critical”, “low”, “medium”, “high”).

Model . Any simplified image of real objects that is convenient for studying. Such an image can be formed descriptively, that is, in words ( verbal model ), can be represented using symbols or signs ( semiotic model ), May be physical copy , graphic image on the monitor screen (for example, an electronic map of the city).

It should be kept in mind that the word " model " is polysemantic and is often used in the sense of "a generally accepted (or - "approved by a decision maker") role model" (that is, repetition in practice). In this sense, it is appropriate to use terms such as "model of the universe", "operation model" , “model of the decision maker’s preference system”, etc.

The choice of model type should be based on an understanding of why the model is needed and for what purpose the modeling is performed. This will allow you to correctly determine the unique combination of required characteristics and properties of the model and reach a subclass of models that best meet the required properties. For research the models that are needed to study some scientific phenomenon, and with which narrow specialists work, do not require any special clarity or compactness, but accuracy and speed are important; For optimization models, the main thing is the speed and accuracy of finding the extremum of the function; For didactic models - ethics, aesthetics, intelligibility, brightness (expressiveness), accessibility (for example, price) - are the most important properties, and special accuracy is not required from it.

So, each type of model is characterized by its own, very specific set of properties. Verbal models have high information representativeness, but they are difficult to use for converting information or solving calculation and analytical problems. Semiotic models, depending on the specific form of use of certain signs and symbols, can be, for example, graphic , logical , mathematical . Using mathematical models, it is convenient to solve, for example, information and optimization problems. Logical models are widely used in constructing knowledge bases.

Taking into account the special role of mathematical models in the decision-making process, we present a classification of these models (Fig. 1.1).

Fig.1.1. Classification of mathematical models

A special place is occupied by the so-called gaming models - political, economic, social, entertainment, military and business games. Using game models it is convenient to study the mechanisms of behavioral uncertainty.

Control . Solving the problem facing decision makers is possible only by directing and using active resources to perform specific tasks or work. Personnel must indicate where, when, what and with what help to do it, what are the quality requirements for the tasks or work performed, what are the permissible deviations from the planned tasks and under what force majeure circumstances emergency measures should be taken, what these measures are, etc. All the above is united by the concept of “management”.

To manage means to direct someone or something towards an intended goal to achieve a desired result. Management is a process that takes place over time. The main requirement for quality management is its continuity .

In addition to continuity, there are a number of other management requirements, for example the requirement for a certain freedom (“backlash”) in the actions of performers, requirements flexibility (possibility of adjustment, if necessary, of a previously planned plan with minimal losses), optimality and some others.

Solution . The quality of the outcome of the actions taken by the decision maker depends not only on the quality of the available resources and the conditions of their use, but also on the quality ways to engaging . Usually the same problem can be solved in different ways.

Most often, the word “decision” is used as a specific, best way elimination of the problem, which is chosen by the decision maker.

Alternative . This is a conventional name for one of the possible (permissible in accordance with the laws of nature and the preferences of the decision-maker) ways of achieving a goal. Each individual alternative is different from other ways of solving a problem. sequence And methods of engaging active resources, that is, a specific set of instructions to performers about private goals and ways to achieve them.

Conditions . Each problem is always associated with a certain set of conditions for its resolution. When analyzing one or another way of achieving a goal, the decision maker must clearly understand the patterns connecting the progress and outcome of the process of completing the task with the decisions made. The set of ideas about these patterns, expressed in a simplified model form, will be called mechanism of the situation . At the same time, we will assume that the indicated simplification of connections means that from all their diversity, only those making the most significant contribution to the formation of the result are singled out.

In principle, there are only two model types of connections in the situation mechanism: unambiguous And ambiguous .

Unique connections generate a stable and well-defined relationship between the implemented solution and the outcome of its implementation. The outcome here is quite certain once the course of action is indicated. For example, if from one source of financing a fixed amount of money is allocated to two consumers equally, then it is clear that each of them can receive no more than half of the allocated amount; if you increase the quantity Vehicle public use, the average traffic load will decrease, etc. We will call similar mechanisms of situations in which the expected outcome almost always occurs, and the probability of alternative outcomes is negligible deterministic .

Multiple-valued connections between the method and the outcome of solving a problem are those connections within which, with repeated use of the same fixed method of solving a problem, not only is it possible in principle for different outcomes (results) to appear, but also the degrees of possibility of these alternative outcomes are commensurate (it is impossible to outcomes are considered extremely unlikely compared to others). Let's look at three fairly easy to interpret examples of such mechanisms.

A) Checking the quality of products using a limited random sample. The percentage of defective products identified in this case is a random variable (the use of special control methods can, of course, significantly increase the accuracy of the assessment).

B) Buying shares in order to best invest free money. After some time, these shares, under the influence of the mechanism of formation of conditions on the securities market, can provide income, or they can bring financial ruin.

C) Sowing a heat-loving agricultural crop in the middle zone. Depending on the weather conditions The harvest of the upcoming summer season may be completely different.

What the three examples presented have in common is that the connections in the “decision-result” chains are ambiguous. However, the nature of the mechanism of this ambiguity is different. In the first example this is accident , in the second - undefined behavior other entities on the securities market, in the third - natural uncertainty .

Thus, in the future we will focus on two main types of situation mechanisms: deterministic (conditions of certainty) and uncertain (conditions of uncertainty), specifying, if necessary, the nature of the phenomena that generate uncertainty.

Criterion (from the Greek kriteriop- - “a measure for evaluating something”) allows you to evaluate effectiveness of the solution Decision maker At this stage it is enough to keep in mind that the criterion is significant (important , significant ), a characteristic of the possible outcomes of the operation that is understandable to the decision maker, measurable and well interpreted by him. It is with the help of the criterion that the decision maker judges the preferability of outcomes, and therefore the methods of conducting an operation to solve the problem.

Sometimes the functional transformation of the result into a criterion is carried out so that larger values ​​of the criterion correspond to greater preference for the result values.

Selecting a criterion is a complex process. But it is absolutely possible to name the criteria without which it is almost impossible to assess the preferability of the outcomes of any economic or commercial transaction. These are criteria such as time , expenses , profit , efficiency .

The values ​​that the criterion takes and which reflect in the minds of the decision maker the degree of preference or non-preference of certain properties of the outcome of the operation, we will call or indicator , or assessment criterion, or simply - assessment . Criterion assessments are expressed in special scales adopted for their measurement.

The best solution represents one of the alternatives among the available options for achieving the goal, which is considered by the decision maker as the most important contender for the title of “solution”. The best solution is determined based on identifying and measuring the personal preferences of the decision maker. Verbally, the “best solution” can be defined as an alternative that the decision maker steadily releases among others, which he constantly prefers to any other of the available alternatives. However, TPR admits that there may be several best solutions. At the same time, it is believed that they are all the same in preference (equivalent). The multiplicity of best alternatives arises from the inability to distinguish them at this level of detail decision maker's preferences. Therefore, to identify the single best alternative, there is only one way - consistent clarification of decision maker preferences on additional aspects (so-called nested relationship principle ).

2.5. General information about decision theory

The accelerating pace of development of civilization, information exchange processes, as well as the emergence of new management technologies based on flexible interaction with the external environment are the factors that have led to the emergence of new difficulties in making business decisions. Along with the existing decision-making criteria, new ones have emerged: impact on the environment, the health of the nation, gaining a leadership position in the domestic and competition in the world market, consolidation and centralization, corporate structure of production organization and many others.

Demand creates supply - in response to the increased need for scientific methods applicable in practice, the emergence of a new scientific discipline - decision theory.

One of the tasks of decision theory is the study of how a person or group of people makes decisions. Another task is the development of special decision-making methods that help identify problems, formulate goals and criteria for achieving them, generate alternatives, evaluate them and justify decisions. Based on these tasks, the theory of decision making can be divided into two parts that are not functionally related to each other: descriptive (descriptive function) and prescriptive (prescriptive function).

“The descriptive component describes the actual behavior and thinking of people in the decision-making process and is called psychological decision theory. The prescriptive component, on the other hand, prescribes how people should make decisions and is called normative decision theory.”

Psychological theory of decision making. A system of statements that reveals the internal content of people’s activities and behavior in the decision-making process is called the psychological theory of decision-making.

Psychological decision theory consists of a system of statements.

1. An idea of ​​the decision-making situation. People perceive and imagine the same situation differently. The idea that arises in the mind of a particular person is a subjective model of the situation. Subjectivity means that real facts, refracted through the prism of consciousness, are distorted, some facts are lost or not taken into account.

2. Assessing the consequences of decisions made. Assessing the consequences of decisions made is also subjective; as a rule, it reflects the personal preferences of the decision maker. Subjective assessment of the usefulness of alternatives has a decisive influence on the decision-making process and determines the final choice.

3. Assessment of the probabilities of events occurring and their impact on the implementation of the decision made. When assessing the probabilities of various events occurring, people use heuristic rules and are influenced by psychological “traps”. Psychologists, for example, have discovered that people often overestimate the likelihood of events that are more understandable and desirable for them, although in reality these events are unlikely and their impact is insignificant.

4. Rules and strategies people use to make decisions in various situations. When choosing an alternative, people also use a variety of heuristics that do not have strict justification. For example, an adaptive model is often used, where each alternative is assessed as the sum of the utilities of various outcomes multiplied by their weight, i.e., the importance of a particular outcome.

5. The influence of various factors that control the decision-making process. Such factors may include:

External environment;

Personal qualities of people;

Availability of resources.

For example, the stronger a person’s need for success and desire for superiority, the more prone he is to risk. In psychology, the effect of “positive risk shift” is also known, when collective decision-making leads to the choice of riskier alternatives than individual decision-making. This occurs due to the distribution of responsibility among members of the group of decision makers, the “blurring” of each person’s responsibility for the consequences of a risky decision.

Psychological decision theory studies how people make decisions and what mental phenomena, paradoxes and “traps” accompany this process. Psychological theory performs two main functions - the function of explaining human behavior and the function of predicting his behavior in decision-making processes.

Normative decision theory is a system of methods that provide decision support. Currently, a large number of different methods and procedures have been developed that “organize” a person’s thinking and prescribe how he should behave in the decision-making process, and help people understand:

Difficult situations;

Your preferences;

The purposes of adoption of SD;

Restrictions on SD;

Evaluation of alternatives;

The final choice of solution.

Normative decision theory is based on two concepts: the concept of utility maximization and the concept of bounded rationality.

Utility maximization concept. The essence of this concept lies in considering an “economic” person as a decision-maker, endowed with rational thinking and choosing the optimal solution. The optimal solution is the one with the maximum utility. The utility of a particular alternative is determined in accordance with a utility function that reflects the individual preference system of the decision maker. When comparing alternatives, the decision maker explicitly or implicitly compares their utilities according to certain criteria that make up the utility function.

In decision theory, special methods have been developed for constructing and maximizing the utility function, which actually help determine the best decision. The use of these methods in practice is time-consuming and therefore not always possible or advisable.

The concept of bounded rationality. In practice, people rarely behave rationally. In most cases, they are usually limited to satisfactory solutions, which, although inferior to the optimal ones in terms of assessment, are quite acceptable from the point of view of achieving the set goals.

Managers limit themselves to satisfactory solutions for the following reasons:

1) due to limited time, experience and knowledge, the decision maker takes into account only a limited number of alternatives;

2) due to time constraints, some alternatives are not accepted for consideration and evaluation as found unsatisfactory upon first consideration;

3) foreseeing all possible outcomes requires multi-criteria assessment, complex mathematical calculations and the development of scenarios, which is associated with time expenditure and the involvement of specialists in the development process (often a manager believes that decision-making is exclusively his prerogative and that the involvement of specialists will mean admitting his own incompetence );

4) the manager often has to make decisions in conditions of uncertainty (insufficient reliable information about organizational problems; the latent nature of real problems that are the causes of those that are being solved; the untapped potential of the organization, its strengths, opportunities that are in external environment and can be used to solve the organization’s problems; threats from the external environment);

5) risk assessment involves the use of special methods of probability theory, which imposes restrictions on their use;

6) decision-making occurs constantly, in a “chronic lack of time” mode, so errors are possible;

7) the lack of a strategy or its clear formulation, as well as detailing to policies, projects, programs and specific activities leads to a “blurring of the goals” of the organization. It is unclear “in the name of what” a decision is made, which should be the result not only of a specific operation, but also of the function of a specific subsystem and the activities of the organization as a whole.

All of the above reasons are due to mental and organizational factors: limited human capabilities for processing information; distortion of information in the process of transmitting it to decision makers; the presence of hidden organizational processes, organizational pathologies, etc.

This text is an introductory fragment. From the book Organization Theory: Lecture Notes author Tyurina Anna

LECTURE No. 1. General concepts theories of organization 1. The essence of an enterprise, its features and functions An enterprise is an independent economic entity created by an entrepreneur or group of entrepreneurs to produce market goods and services in order to obtain

From the book Human Resource Management for Managers: tutorial author Spivak Vladimir Alexandrovich

Speed ​​of Decision Making The time taken to make a decision can also greatly influence the selection process. Suppose, for example, that the production manager comes into the HR manager's office and says, “My two quality control inspectors just

From the book Management Decisions author Lapygin Yuri Nikolaevich

3.1. The essence of decision making The essence of development and implementation management decisions– multidimensionality of these processes. The economic essence of SD is manifested in the fact that its development and implementation requires financial, material and other resources. That's why

From the book Management: training course author Makhovikova Galina Afanasyevna

3.5. Decision-making problems A characteristic feature of any decision-making situation is the presence of a large number of action options from which the best one must be chosen. One of the problems of RSD is that the goals (goals) need to be given quantitative and

From the book Unconscious Branding. Using the latest advances in neurobiology in marketing author Praet Douglas Wang

Topic 7. PROVISIONS OF THE PSYCHOLOGICAL THEORY OF DECISION MAKING Topic content Cognitive psychology and decision making. Three levels of human memory. Neural network model of brain function. Thinking: intuitive, visually effective and visually figurative. Search theory

From the book Managing Change [How to effectively manage change in society, business and personal life] author Adizes Yitzhak Calderon

5.4. Methodology for making management decisions The effectiveness of management depends on the integrated application of many factors, and not least on the procedure for making decisions and their practical implementation. So that the management decision is

From book Ideal leader. Why you can’t become one and what follows from this author Adizes Yitzhak Calderon

From the book Development of Leaders. How to understand your management style and communicate effectively with people of other styles author Adizes Yitzhak Calderon

From the book How to overcome management crises. Diagnosis and solution of management problems author Adizes Yitzhak Calderon

From the book A Kind Word and the Manager's Revolver author Mukhortin Konstantin

From the book Seven Steps to Creating an Effective IT Department author Grednikov Sergey

From the book Effective Leader author Drucker Peter Ferdinand

Tools for decision making In order to make decisions correctly, every manager needs to be able to use analytical tools. I will suggest some of them: SWOT analysis (for details, see the section on the “Analysis” function). This tool will help you impartially,

From the book MBA in 10 days. The most important programs from the world's leading business schools author Silbiger Stephen

1. Efficiency of the IT department: general information Every manager, when making a decision, is always guided by the ratio of parameters: time, money, quality. Figure 1 clearly shows two situational examples: in one case (point A) – harmony of all three

From the book How the Best Manage by Tracy Brian

From the author's book

From the author's book

Two Decision Making Methods There are two methods you can use to become a better decision maker: 1. The balance sheet method is often called the Benjamin Franklin method. Take a blank sheet of paper and divide it in half with a vertical line.

The decision-making task is aimed at determining the best (optimal) course of action to achieve set goals. A goal is an ideal representation of a desired outcome. If actual condition does not correspond to what is desired, then there is a problem. Developing an action plan to eliminate the problem is the essence of the decision-making task.

The theory of decision making was formed on the basis of scientific management. In the field of decision-making, there has traditionally been a peculiar division of labor, in which some - academic scientists - studied how to manage, while others - administrators - carried out management in practice. However, even pioneers in the field of management theory, such as Woodrow Wilson and Leonard White, advocated the creation of a theory that could make the practice of managing government agencies more rational.

Decision theory models were first used in public administration research in 1947, when Herbert Simon's article "Management Sayings" appeared in the Public Administration Review. Simon argued that decision making is the essence of the management process and that progress in the field of management can be achieved by teaching managers how to make rational decisions, rather than by trying to invent some ideal organizational structures.

Decision theory came to the fore in the 1960s, driven by developments in management, operations research, computer science, and systems analysis. It is this discipline, which studies the creation of mathematical models of reality, that had a major impact on the development of computer modeling of social processes.

This theory is used by managers and analysts to structure the description of problems and evaluate possible solutions to them. Thus, game theory, one of the branches of this discipline, is widely used by experts from the US State Department when predicting possible developments in the international arena. Another related area, risk assessment, has found application in the practice of regulatory agencies such as the Agency for the Protection of environment, which defines environmental safety standards.

The subject of any decision is the decision maker (DM). The concept of decision maker is collective. This can be one person - an individual decision-maker or a group of people developing a collective decision - a group decision-maker. To help decision-makers in collecting and analyzing information and formulating solutions, experts are involved - specialists in the problem being solved.

Decision theory is based on a rational choice model based in microeconomics. According to this theory, the process of making any decision goes through the following stages:

    Defining the problem to be solved. The main components of the problem are identified and their relationship to each other is described;

    Gathering facts. Facts must be collected as objectively and impartially as possible;

    Identifying a variety of possible solutions. Based on the data obtained, you should describe all the methods by which this problem can be solved.

    Analysis of possible solutions. Using mathematical tools, the likely advantages and disadvantages of each of the possible solutions are compared;

    Choosing the best strategy. All options are ranked from most to least preferred, and the best is selected;

A decision is considered rational if it increases the welfare of the person who made it more than any other possible option. “Well-being” here refers to anything that has value, such as a feeling of satisfaction or joy from achieving a goal. However, most often it is associated with the generation of income and is measured in monetary units.

Decisions are made either under conditions of certainty or under conditions of uncertainty. Conditions of certainty imply that all the consequences of any course of action are known in advance, and therefore it is not difficult to say which decision is optimal. Conditions of uncertainty, on the contrary, are characterized by the fact that in them it is impossible to predict with absolute certainty the consequences of one’s actions. Consequently, once in them, the decision maker is forced to take into account the probabilities of events and consciously take risks.

Probability is an estimate of the chances of a given event occurring. It can be estimated, as a rule, only approximately based on the study of a number of examples of how a similar situation developed in the past. Often the odds in favor of certain events occurring are calculated through expert polling.

Risk is the likelihood of an unfavorable development of events. The higher the risk associated with a given decision option, the greater the chance that it will result in undesirable consequences. On the other hand, everyone knows that it is usually the riskiest undertakings that promise the greatest profits if successful.

The choice of one course of action depends on the decision maker's risk appetite and his or her subjective utility of each outcome. Subjective utility is the value that a given person places on a particular aspect of possible outcomes. If each of the possible results has its own pros and cons, then the choice of a particular person depends on how important for him are those properties in which these results differ from each other. If one manager prefers neat, but uninitiative subordinates, and another prefers creative, but careless ones, this is explained by the fact that for the first, the subjective usefulness of neatness is higher than originality and independence, and for the second, vice versa.

Risk assessment is a form of decision-making based on the listed basic concepts. Whoever develops pollution control measures or occupational safety standards must determine how much the likelihood of harm to nature or humans is reduced by the introduction of certain prohibitions. If the achieved security gain is small, but the economic losses are significant, then such a ban is most often not adopted.

The mathematical expression for the preference of a given decision option is called its “expected value.” It is calculated by multiplying the subjective utilities of all possible outcomes by the probability of these outcomes and adding the results of these calculations. By comparing the expected values ​​of all action options, you can choose the preferred one - either the most winning or the least losing.

Decision making in an organization is rarely the result of the mental activity of an individual seeking to maximize his well-being. Much more often, a whole group is involved in decision making. The processes of groupthink are very different from those described by rational choice theory.

First, differences in interests and values ​​between the people who make up a group make the very concept of “rational choice” vague. The values ​​that will have the same outcomes for different actors may differ significantly (the same applies to the risk appetite of different people). The norms that govern the functioning of an organization also often make it difficult to make optimal decisions: the most competent member of the group often occupies a subordinate position in the group and his or her voice plays little role in developing strategy. Finally, the goals and needs of the organization and its constituent parts are most often complex and even contradictory, which again makes models focused on the rational individual of little applicability (a historical example of a group decision that turned into a disaster - the launch of the Challenger spacecraft, which contained significant malfunctions) - quote Hult and Walcott).

Thus, for example, in government institutions, decision makers are always forced to keep political considerations in mind. Even necessary programs and laws often become the subject of heated discussions, negotiations and compromises. An example is the Tax Reform Act of 1986. The original version was intended to eliminate tax breaks for people who own homes purchased with credit. From the standpoint of rational choice, this decision seemed absolutely reasonable, since it provided the treasury with significant revenues and essentially abolished state support for people with average and above average incomes. However, in the version that was heard, the deduction from homeowners' income taxes for the amount used to repay loan interest was retained even for those who own two homes. Observers attributed this to the fact that most congressmen had just two houses - one in their home state and the other in Washington.

Many researchers have tried to overcome the shortcomings of the rational choice model by studying how decisions are actually made in everyday situations. The most famous concepts are those proposed by Herbert Simon, Charles Lindblom, Ami-tai Etzioni and James March.

Theory is a philosophical category to denote the development of a system of knowledge that reliably and adequately reflects the essence and patterns of phenomena in a certain area of ​​objective reality, which represents a guide for practical activities. By analogy with this definition, the theory of decision making should be understood as a system of knowledge that reflects the essence of the concepts of “pattern” and “decision”. Taking into account patterns, decisions are developed, adopted and implemented. The main features of decision-making theory are objective truth, logical integrity, formal consistency, development ability, relative independence, active influence on practice.

Objective in theory is the verification by practice of the content of its laws and principles, and subjective is the form of expression of the corresponding theoretical provisions. A necessary condition for the formation of a theory of decision making as a component theory of management is a precise definition of its subject, boundaries and directions of study, forms and methods of research.

The essence of decision-making as a process is understood as the internal, relatively stable basis of a management decision, which determines its meaning, role and place in the functioning and development of the organization. The essence of decision making usually manifests itself through a variety of external connections and actions that characterize one of the aspects of a management decision. Based on this, we can determine the subject of research in decision making theory.

The essence of decision-making development lies in the activity of the decision maker to perform the fundamental function of a leader in the management process. The main goal of a management decision is to provide a coordinating (regulatory) influence on the management system that implements the solution of management tasks by personnel to achieve the goals of the organization.

Achieving these goals involves solving problems and tasks that constitute the content and sequence of actions of decision makers in the performance of their immediate responsibilities. The main objectives are: creating an information base for making timely decisions; identification of constraints and decision criteria; organization of activities of management personnel. Decision making is a creative, responsible management task. It consists in determining, in accordance with the current situation, the intention of subsequent actions of subordinates in a specific area of ​​management (production of goods or provision of services), the tasks of structural units in the system of activities, the order of their interaction, support and management. The manager (line manager) makes decisions and bears personal responsibility for them. Management personnel of a particular organization participate in the preparation of data for decision-making. Responsibility for a group decision lies with those who made it, in accordance with their position.

For timely decision-making, it is necessary to have a management system that ensures the implementation of complex systemic activities of decision makers, to organize the work of management personnel on a scientific basis, using effective methods and automated management systems. Management personnel involved in decision making are required to: professional quality, and personal. At the same time, the quality of decisions made largely depends on the team’s inherent coherence organizational culture, relationships between managers and performers, the use of decision support systems.

On these issues, decision-making theory should develop scientifically based practical recommendations, based on objective laws and achievements of related sciences and theories, primarily social, psychological and legal. At the same time, the main thing is not just to know the laws, but to wisely use the mechanism for their manifestation.

Consequently, the subject of research in decision-making theory is the laws (patterns) of the activities of decision makers, its organizational forms, technologies and methods, principles of management and labor organization, the essence and content of decisions.

The object of decision-making theory is the systematic activity of managers and management personnel in the process of developing, making and implementing decisions.

Currently, the development of decision-making theory is significantly influenced by methodology, in particular the methodology of thinking, management theory, cybernetics, psychology, sociology and political science. For further development Natural sciences - biology, psychophysiology - are essential to this theory. The most important role belongs to mathematics and its methods of quantitative assessment of options when making decisions, predicting the development of situations in order to develop the most rational solution.

The subject of decision theory is studied from various angles, constituting separate but interrelated aspects. The main ones include methodological, organizational, economic, technological, socio-psychological and legal.

Methodological aspects of decision making reflect the unity and integrity of scientific knowledge for decision theory.

Organizational aspects reflect the state and prospects for the development of the organizational and functional structure of management bodies, the location and order of functioning of decision makers (as management bodies) in the management system at various hierarchical levels. They also include identifying ways to improve the organization of decision-making and methods for studying the problems that arise.

Economic aspects show the effect of economic factors on the effectiveness of existing and developed decision-making systems, their influence economic efficiency for economic training of management personnel, improvement of organizational forms and methods of decision-making in the new technical base.

Technological aspects determine the level of used and developed decision-making technologies in management, prospects for the development of automated and human-machine systems for their adoption.

Socio-psychological aspects illustrate various aspects of people's activities in the decision-making process. These include improving the structure of intra-collective connections, studying the behavior of individuals in a team and the relationships of its members in the decision-making process.

The main problems of decision-making psychology:

  • – determination of the main psychological features of management decision-making processes;
  • – analysis of management decisions from the point of view of the system of their empirical and phenomenological functional features, procedural organization;
  • – functional-structural analysis of management activities in the decision-making process;
  • – socio-psychological analysis of management teams;
  • – study of the psychology of the leader, his relationships with performers;
  • – psychological aspects of selection, placement and training of decision makers.

Legal aspects reflect the relationship between the various hierarchical levels of the management system and individual officials in the preparation of decision making. Legal norms must form the basis for organizing management activities.

Thus, decision-making theory is a sum of knowledge about the development, adoption and implementation of management decisions, patterns and principles, organizational forms, methods and technologies for the functioning of the decision-making system in an organization.

Decision theory, like any other scientific theory, performs cognitive and predictive functions.

The cognitive function is manifested in revealing the essence of decision-making processes, the patterns and principles to which it is subject, the emergence and development of the theory of decision-making at various historical stages, in explaining the basic properties and interrelations of the subject of research, substantiating the technology and decision-making system.

The predictive function consists of determining trends in the further development of processes and decision-making systems, organizational forms and methods of activity of management personnel in the process of their adoption.

The main tasks of decision theory:

  • – study and generalization of decision-making experience under certain conditions, as well as under conditions of uncertainty and risk;
  • – identification and study of objective patterns of decision-making processes; formation on their basis of principles for organizing the activities of decision makers, organizational forms and methods, technologies for the development, adoption and implementation of decisions;
  • – production practical recommendations on the work of line managers and their management apparatus when making decisions in a real situation, as well as the use of technical means and automated systems management;
  • – development of methods for studying the problems of development of a decision-making system, principles and methods for assessing their effectiveness, as well as measures to improve the activities of decision makers.

The problems of decision-making theory can in principle be solved only if the methodological foundations of a new concept for managing the life of society are developed.

In this textbook we will use and adhere to the meaning of the following basic concepts: management, decision maker, problem or task (management), solution, goal (management, activity), operation (cybernetic), alternative, active resources, result, model, conditions (development of solutions ).

Please note that these basic concepts should be taken only as terms and not as strict definitions.

There are at least two reasons for this.

First, for some categories of TPD there are simply no strict definitions. Secondly, any definition is always quite inert, and TPR is a dynamic, rapidly developing science that is constantly revising its conceptual and methodological apparatus. Consequently, there is no need to learn by heart those words through which we will interpret the meaning of basic concepts, but it is imperative to be deeply imbued with the thoughts and images that stand behind these words and be able to interpret them.

For methodological reasons, when describing basic concepts, we will highlight in italics those terms for which interpretations have already been given or the meaning of which will necessarily be explained further, in a place convenient for presenting the material in the textbook.

Control. As already noted, solving the problem facing decision makers is possible only by directing and using active resources to perform specific tasks or work. Nothing gets done by itself. People taking part in the operation need to indicate where, when, what and with what to do, what are the requirements for the quality of the tasks or work performed, what are the permissible variations from the intended tasks and under what force majeure circumstances should emergency measures be taken, what are these measures and etc. All this is united by one concept “management”. To manage means to direct someone or something towards an intended goal in order to achieve the desired result.

The main requirement for quality management is its continuity. The misconception that everything will happen by itself is a dangerous delusion! It is akin to the idea that when driving a car you can leave the steering wheel for a long time. Any business, like a car, without control can only move in one direction - downhill! In addition to continuity, there are a number of other requirements for management, for example, the requirement of a certain freedom (“play”) in the actions of performers, the requirement of stability and flexibility (meaning that, if necessary, adjustments to the previously planned plan can be made with minimal losses), optimality and some others .

Solution. Usually the same problem can be solved in different ways. However, the quality of the outcome of an operation, that is, the meaning of its results, depends not only on the quality of active resources and the conditions of their use, but also on the quality of the method of using these resources in these conditions. In this regard, in this textbook, the word “solution” will most often be interpreted as the best way to resolve the problem facing the decision-maker, as the most preferable way to achieve the goal intended by the decision-maker. Consequently, the meaning of the word “solution” in our case will be somewhat different from the meaning that is attributed to it, for example, in mathematics, when they talk about solving a mathematical problem.

In mathematics, the correct solution to a correctly posed problem is always the same, regardless of who solves this problem and under what conditions.

A mathematical solution is always objective. In contrast, solving a problem is subjective, since different decision makers can choose different ways to solve the problem that they like. Moreover, the conditions for solving a problem leave a significant imprint on the decision maker’s choice: the same decision maker under different conditions may generally prefer a different method of solving the problem.

Target. A formalized description of the desired state, the achievement of which is identified in the minds of the decision maker with the solution of a problem or task. The goal is described in the form of a required result.

Alternative. This is a conventional name for one of the possible (permissible in accordance with the laws of nature and the preferences of the decision-maker) ways of achieving a goal. Each individual alternative differs from other methods of solving a problem in the sequence and methods of using active resources, i.e., a specific set of instructions to whom, what, where, with what, and by when to do it.

Active resources are everything that can be used by a decision maker to solve a problem. We will always consider the main active resources to be people, time, finances (money) and consumables available to the decision maker.

Result. By result we mean a special form of description of the most important characteristics of the outcome of the operation for the decision maker. When studying an operation, the degree of preference (or, conversely, non-preference) of its results is presented on the most appropriate scale: numerical, quantitative or qualitative. Let, for example, consider “victory” and “defeat” as the outcomes of a financial transaction. In this case, it will be possible to measure the results of the transaction, for example, either in terms of the quantities of realized profits, shares and other securities purchased (quantitative scale), or in relation to the intensity of the outcome, for example, “grand victory”, “minor defeat”, “significant defeat” " (qualitative scale), or in relation to the order of outcomes - first win, second win, third win (numerical scale). The type of scale is selected depending on the purpose of measuring the results; this will be discussed in more detail later.

study some element of reality - didactic and research models;

work on some element practical actions- training and game models;

optimize any process, form or content of something - optimization models;

delegate authority to perform certain actions to other persons - preference models.

Each modeling goal can be associated with the most preferred form of constructing the II representation of the model. For example, a model can be formed descriptively, that is, in words. Such models are called verbal. Elements of reality and the connections between them can also be represented using symbols or signs. These are semiotic models. In addition, since childhood, everyone has been familiar with physical copies of objects and objects - toys. And everyone played games in childhood: war, school, some profession, that is, they modeled behavior in reality. Each of us has drawn something at some point, expressing our thoughts about what we saw or heard. These graphic images - drawings, diagrams, maps of the area, etc. - are all also models, that is, simplified images of reality.

Each of the listed models is characterized by its own, well-defined set of properties. Verbal models have a high information capacity (just remember L. N. Tolstoy’s greatest work “War and Peace”), but they are difficult to use for converting information or solving calculation and analytical problems. Semiotic models, depending on the specific form of use of certain signs and symbols - diagrams, graphs, logical diagrams, mathematical equations and inequalities - are good, for example, for information and optimization problems, for representing them by means computer technology. Game models (political, economic, social and business games) occupy a special place. Using game models it is convenient to study the mechanisms of behavioral uncertainty. When developing management decisions in economics, verbal and graphical forms of models are most often used. To increase the validity and evidence of decisions, mathematical and game models are used.

Based on a system analysis of the work procedure of the head of an enterprise (company) when developing solutions, a graphical model of the management process has been developed. This model is shown in Fig. 1.1.2.

Rice. 1.1.2. Graphical model of the management process

Conditions for developing solutions. Each problem is always associated with a specific environment, situation and a very specific set of conditions. The problem is always solved within the framework of the existing state of affairs. When analyzing one or another method of achieving a goal, the decision maker must clearly understand the patterns connecting the course and outcome of the operation with the decisions made. The set of ideas about these patterns, of course, is perceived by the decision maker in a simplified, model form. Some of the patterns can be captured in a strictly formal form. For example, Newton's laws of mechanics describe in mathematical form the relationships in the mass-force-acceleration chain.

In TPR, the model of patterns in the “decision-outcome” chain is called the “mechanism of the situation.” At the same time, it is believed that the model simplification of the connections in this chain in no way means their discarding. This means that from the entire variety of connections and patterns, only those that are of predominant importance are included in the model, that is, those that make the most significant contribution to the formation of the result. For example, when estimating the time t of a body falling in the Earth’s atmosphere from a height h, it is necessary to take into account, strictly speaking, the influence of both the weight and shape of the falling body, and atmospheric disturbances (wind), however, in a significant range of values ​​of height h we can assume that only the height as the leading factor determines the “mechanism of the situation.” In this case, the connection between hut will be simplified and unambiguous, namely: h = 0.5d g2.

In TPR, only two types of model connections in the “situation mechanism” are considered: unambiguous and ambiguous.

Unambiguous connections generate a stable and well-defined relationship between the implemented solution and the outcome of its implementation. And as soon as the method of action is specified, the outcome and the results associated with it immediately become quite definite (as in our example with estimating the time of falling from a given height). Such “situation mechanisms”, in which the expected outcome almost always occurs, and the probability of other (unexpected for the decision-maker) outcomes is negligibly small, will be called non-risky situations, deterministic situation mechanisms, or conditions of certainty.

The connections between the method and the outcome of an operation (risky situations, or conditions of uncertainty) are considered ambiguous, within the framework of which, when the same alternative is repeated multiple times, different outcomes may appear. At the same time, the degrees of possibility of the occurrence of certain outcomes and results are quite commensurate (i.e., some outcomes cannot be considered extremely less possible compared to others).

The most expressive model of the “situation mechanism” with a multi-valued relationship between the alternative and the outcome is the random mechanism of the occurrence of insured events. Even when the same insurer insures several identical objects, two outcomes are possible: “the occurrence of an insured event” or “the non-occurrence of an insured event.” And if the number of insured objects is associated with the occurrence of an insured event, the result is several possible values ​​of the paid insured amount of the insured objects. This is a typical mechanism of stochastic (random) uncertainty, and interaction with competitors is behavioral.

But there are also more complex situations. For example, there may be no data on the probabilities of certain outcomes, although it is known that random factors are the main factors in an operation. Or it may be that there is no information about the possible alternative behavior of other entities involved in the LIR operation, although it is known that these individuals will take some actions to achieve their own goals. Finally, the nature of the phenomena and events occurring in the operation may simply not be clear or known. The “mechanisms” of all such situations will be classified as naturally uncertain.

The list of concepts used in TPR is not limited to this presentation. As the material is presented, important concepts such as problematic situation, solution efficiency, expert, criterion, preferences, best solution, etc.
Random articles

Up